Public Polls and What They Tell Us
A public opinion poll is a survey conducted concerning a particular subject matter with an objective to make a prediction about the future, make a statement about a group of people without knowing them and make an educated guess to increase one’s knowledge (Analyzing Inductive Arguments). This is accomplished by administering a series of questions to a random group of people typically selected from a variety of groups of the population or referred to as the random sample, with a lower low error margin that will result in a truthful level of probability or called the confidence level (Moore and Parker 353). For purposes of this assignment, two public polls were separately analyzed to determine whether the methods used to conduct each poll lead to a weak or strong public opinion poll.
The first of the two polls analyzed in this assignment is entitled “Abortion Poll Finds Support for 20-Week Ban” by Huff/Post/YouGov (Swanson and Blumenthal, “Abortion Polls Finds Support for 20-Week Ban”). The goal of this survey was to discover whether or not Americans would favor restrictions on abortions performed after the twentieth week of pregnancy. The results had a large margin (59%) in favor of a federal law banning abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. 30% polled felt that the government should not interfere, whereas 11% were undecided. In conducting this survey 1,000 adults were selected through an on-line process in which the user chose to take the survey between June 27-28, 2013 (Swanson and Blumenthal). The survey then determines which answers to maintain as part of its results by selecting those that meet the characteristics of the adult U.S. population. Specifically age, race, gender, education, employment, income, marital status, number of children voter registration time and location of internet access, interest in politics, religion were factored in to create the sample selection (Swanson and Blumenthal).
The first question in the survey asked whether the sample population believed “abortion is morally wrong,” “morally acceptable,” or “not a moral issue.” Although the answer should be to agree, disagree or be undecided, however, the question is more complicated than the answers allude to. The question is slanted in that it allows for an unreliable response (Moore and Parker 379). If one is asked to agree with abortion as morally acceptable or wrong, this does not necessarily mean that the person agrees with pro-choice or pro-life. The results of this poll were distinctly to find out if Americans support a 20 week ban on abortion not whether they believe abortion is morally acceptable. For example, if one believes that abortion is morally wrong and would not agree to an abortion but feels that every woman has to make that choice for themselves, therein lies the discrepancy with this survey question. Further, if one agrees that abortion is morally acceptable but not after 20 weeks gestation, there again a complication in the survey arises.
The sample population was then asked which of the following statements comes closest to his or her opinion, “decisions on abortion should be made by a woman and her doctor” or “government has a right and obligation to pass restrictions on abortion.” Moreover, these set of statements leave room for error in that it is asking two completely different questions. It is plausible for one to agree with both statements equally therefore this analogy is weak (Moore and Parker 379). The fact that an abortion should be made by a woman and her doctor does not mean that there can’t be restrictions, especially if someone feels that such restrictions would be in the best interest of the mother and unborn child.
On a scale from 1 to 10 (1 being very weak, 10 being very strong) I would assign this poll a 4. Although I believe there was a strong attempt to randomly select a population that would fairly represent adult Americans it failed in several ways. First, the error margin is significant because only 1,000 were polled, this is hardly enough to represent the adult population in the United States and leaves room for error. Second, the questions asked were slanted, as described above. Finally, I am always skeptical of surveys done solely on-line because not all adult Americans own a computer and those whom own a computer are not guaranteed to visit this particular website. Therefore leaving room for a false prediction of what Americans really feel about this subject matter. On a side note, the article did state that during an interview with Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and the Huffington Post, “because in real life, people think abortion is a very complicated issue…they can almost always think of some set of circumstances where it would be okay to have an abortion” (Swanson and Blumenthal).
The second poll also concerns abortion, however, this poll specifically declares whether Americans are pro-choice or pro-life. For this poll, telephone interviews were conducted with a random sample of 1,028 adults aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from May 8-11, 2014. To further broaden the sample, interviews were conducted using 50% landlines and 50% cellular telephones and minimum quotas by time zone. The telephone numbers were selected using random-digit-dial methods (Saad, Lydia). The results of the poll declared that 47% of Americans are pro-choice and 46% of Americans are pro-life, the remainder is undecided (Saad, Lydia).
In general this poll was far more straightforward than the previously analyzed poll. The question was plausible to extract a definitive answer from the sample population and reached out to a larger variety target group. In the previous poll, the means to obtain information was solely on-line. However, this poll targeted all Americans with either a landline or cellular telephone. Again, there is room for bias in that the poll excludes those Americans that possibly do not own a phone. However, the sample population is much larger than via internet polling only.
Based on the range of target population and the simplicity of the question I would rate this poll as a 9. I would leave a little room for error in that those without a telephone were not included. However, the poll met criteria that would lead to a strong argument. The poll reached a larger population, the questions were precise and left little room for indecisive answers or bias. I found no apparent fallacies to be present in this survey. The poll further gave a detailed error margin for its results which gave further confidence in the accuracy of this poll.
Through analyzing and discussing each survey it is apparent that the sample size, target population, bias, methodology are all factors that must be carefully considered in order to obtain results that will lead to the highest probability. Each poll’s target population were adult Americans it was unequivocally uneven in that the first poll was limited to only Americans with internet access and those that visit that particular website. Finally, the first poll’s slanted statements and questions lead to a weak analysis and could not lead to accurate reading of what American’s think. Whereas, the straight forward questions of the second poll lead to truthful and accurate analysis of what Americans think and was therefore a strong analysis.
Works Cited:
Moore, Brooke Noel and Robert Parker. Critical Thinking.
New York: McGraw-Hill, 2012. Print
Analyzing Inductive Arguments. SoftChalk, 2015. Web. 29 May 2015. Web.
Swanson, Emily and Mark Blumenthal. “Abortion Poll Finds Support for 20 Week Ban.”
HuffPost Pollster. Updated 11 July 2013. Web.
Saad, Lydia. “U.S. Still Split on Abortion: 47% Pro Choice, 46% Pro-Life.”
Gallup. 22 May 2014. Web.
The first of the two polls analyzed in this assignment is entitled “Abortion Poll Finds Support for 20-Week Ban” by Huff/Post/YouGov (Swanson and Blumenthal, “Abortion Polls Finds Support for 20-Week Ban”). The goal of this survey was to discover whether or not Americans would favor restrictions on abortions performed after the twentieth week of pregnancy. The results had a large margin (59%) in favor of a federal law banning abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. 30% polled felt that the government should not interfere, whereas 11% were undecided. In conducting this survey 1,000 adults were selected through an on-line process in which the user chose to take the survey between June 27-28, 2013 (Swanson and Blumenthal). The survey then determines which answers to maintain as part of its results by selecting those that meet the characteristics of the adult U.S. population. Specifically age, race, gender, education, employment, income, marital status, number of children voter registration time and location of internet access, interest in politics, religion were factored in to create the sample selection (Swanson and Blumenthal).
The first question in the survey asked whether the sample population believed “abortion is morally wrong,” “morally acceptable,” or “not a moral issue.” Although the answer should be to agree, disagree or be undecided, however, the question is more complicated than the answers allude to. The question is slanted in that it allows for an unreliable response (Moore and Parker 379). If one is asked to agree with abortion as morally acceptable or wrong, this does not necessarily mean that the person agrees with pro-choice or pro-life. The results of this poll were distinctly to find out if Americans support a 20 week ban on abortion not whether they believe abortion is morally acceptable. For example, if one believes that abortion is morally wrong and would not agree to an abortion but feels that every woman has to make that choice for themselves, therein lies the discrepancy with this survey question. Further, if one agrees that abortion is morally acceptable but not after 20 weeks gestation, there again a complication in the survey arises.
The sample population was then asked which of the following statements comes closest to his or her opinion, “decisions on abortion should be made by a woman and her doctor” or “government has a right and obligation to pass restrictions on abortion.” Moreover, these set of statements leave room for error in that it is asking two completely different questions. It is plausible for one to agree with both statements equally therefore this analogy is weak (Moore and Parker 379). The fact that an abortion should be made by a woman and her doctor does not mean that there can’t be restrictions, especially if someone feels that such restrictions would be in the best interest of the mother and unborn child.
On a scale from 1 to 10 (1 being very weak, 10 being very strong) I would assign this poll a 4. Although I believe there was a strong attempt to randomly select a population that would fairly represent adult Americans it failed in several ways. First, the error margin is significant because only 1,000 were polled, this is hardly enough to represent the adult population in the United States and leaves room for error. Second, the questions asked were slanted, as described above. Finally, I am always skeptical of surveys done solely on-line because not all adult Americans own a computer and those whom own a computer are not guaranteed to visit this particular website. Therefore leaving room for a false prediction of what Americans really feel about this subject matter. On a side note, the article did state that during an interview with Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and the Huffington Post, “because in real life, people think abortion is a very complicated issue…they can almost always think of some set of circumstances where it would be okay to have an abortion” (Swanson and Blumenthal).
The second poll also concerns abortion, however, this poll specifically declares whether Americans are pro-choice or pro-life. For this poll, telephone interviews were conducted with a random sample of 1,028 adults aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia from May 8-11, 2014. To further broaden the sample, interviews were conducted using 50% landlines and 50% cellular telephones and minimum quotas by time zone. The telephone numbers were selected using random-digit-dial methods (Saad, Lydia). The results of the poll declared that 47% of Americans are pro-choice and 46% of Americans are pro-life, the remainder is undecided (Saad, Lydia).
In general this poll was far more straightforward than the previously analyzed poll. The question was plausible to extract a definitive answer from the sample population and reached out to a larger variety target group. In the previous poll, the means to obtain information was solely on-line. However, this poll targeted all Americans with either a landline or cellular telephone. Again, there is room for bias in that the poll excludes those Americans that possibly do not own a phone. However, the sample population is much larger than via internet polling only.
Based on the range of target population and the simplicity of the question I would rate this poll as a 9. I would leave a little room for error in that those without a telephone were not included. However, the poll met criteria that would lead to a strong argument. The poll reached a larger population, the questions were precise and left little room for indecisive answers or bias. I found no apparent fallacies to be present in this survey. The poll further gave a detailed error margin for its results which gave further confidence in the accuracy of this poll.
Through analyzing and discussing each survey it is apparent that the sample size, target population, bias, methodology are all factors that must be carefully considered in order to obtain results that will lead to the highest probability. Each poll’s target population were adult Americans it was unequivocally uneven in that the first poll was limited to only Americans with internet access and those that visit that particular website. Finally, the first poll’s slanted statements and questions lead to a weak analysis and could not lead to accurate reading of what American’s think. Whereas, the straight forward questions of the second poll lead to truthful and accurate analysis of what Americans think and was therefore a strong analysis.
Works Cited:
Moore, Brooke Noel and Robert Parker. Critical Thinking.
New York: McGraw-Hill, 2012. Print
Analyzing Inductive Arguments. SoftChalk, 2015. Web. 29 May 2015. Web.
Swanson, Emily and Mark Blumenthal. “Abortion Poll Finds Support for 20 Week Ban.”
HuffPost Pollster. Updated 11 July 2013. Web.
Saad, Lydia. “U.S. Still Split on Abortion: 47% Pro Choice, 46% Pro-Life.”
Gallup. 22 May 2014. Web.
Reflection
I write this reflection in connection with the first writing assignment for this class. The assignment asked the student to write a 1,000 word essay analyzing two public opinion polls, one of which offers weak support for its conclusion, the other of which offers strong support for its conclusion.
To begin the process I initially combed through public opinion polls to 1) find polls that the assignment criteria; and 2) extracted information on a similar subject matter. Once found a number of polls I separated the polls by subject matter. I read through each one in order to select a weak poll and a strong poll. Once I decided on two polls, I re-read each, annotated the information and created an outline. During this process I wrote my thesis to help organize the direction of the essay. At this point of the process I was able to use my outline to write my first draft.
In addition to the subject matter materials, I downloaded and thoroughly reviewed the MLA format style guide from https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/01/. I am very new to the MLA format and I required the support of this guide. I felt it was important for this first essay to grasp what is expected on a technical level as well as a skill level.
Based on the course learning outcomes and subject performance objectives outlined in the syllabus, I felt that this essay helped me practice my ability to analyze and evaluate, in written form, the assumptions and implications of arguments from diverse sources. Further, it allowed a practical use of the student’s ability to analyze and evaluate the assumptions and implications of arguments from diverse sources, and evaluate the reliability of these sources of information and media.
When beginning a new essay, crafting a thesis is my biggest challenge. For this particular essay, I was able to better focus my objective and create an almost decent thesis. My first paragraph takes a great deal of my time. This was the biggest hurdle but once I developed it, I was able to better direct the body of the essay.
If there were any skills I would need to polish for my next writing assignment, proofreading is most definitely on the top of the list. Although I reviewed my essay multiple times, made edits and revisions, I felt it could have been better polished. In particular, the paragraphs before the conclusion could have been better formulated and a more precise vocabulary included.
The required writing for this class will help me develop and hone my writing skills.
I write this reflection in connection with the first writing assignment for this class. The assignment asked the student to write a 1,000 word essay analyzing two public opinion polls, one of which offers weak support for its conclusion, the other of which offers strong support for its conclusion.
To begin the process I initially combed through public opinion polls to 1) find polls that the assignment criteria; and 2) extracted information on a similar subject matter. Once found a number of polls I separated the polls by subject matter. I read through each one in order to select a weak poll and a strong poll. Once I decided on two polls, I re-read each, annotated the information and created an outline. During this process I wrote my thesis to help organize the direction of the essay. At this point of the process I was able to use my outline to write my first draft.
In addition to the subject matter materials, I downloaded and thoroughly reviewed the MLA format style guide from https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/747/01/. I am very new to the MLA format and I required the support of this guide. I felt it was important for this first essay to grasp what is expected on a technical level as well as a skill level.
Based on the course learning outcomes and subject performance objectives outlined in the syllabus, I felt that this essay helped me practice my ability to analyze and evaluate, in written form, the assumptions and implications of arguments from diverse sources. Further, it allowed a practical use of the student’s ability to analyze and evaluate the assumptions and implications of arguments from diverse sources, and evaluate the reliability of these sources of information and media.
When beginning a new essay, crafting a thesis is my biggest challenge. For this particular essay, I was able to better focus my objective and create an almost decent thesis. My first paragraph takes a great deal of my time. This was the biggest hurdle but once I developed it, I was able to better direct the body of the essay.
If there were any skills I would need to polish for my next writing assignment, proofreading is most definitely on the top of the list. Although I reviewed my essay multiple times, made edits and revisions, I felt it could have been better polished. In particular, the paragraphs before the conclusion could have been better formulated and a more precise vocabulary included.
The required writing for this class will help me develop and hone my writing skills.